International Futures Concepts and Philosophy (Course 2)

This course moves beyond the mechanics of the International Futures (IFs) platform to develop the conceptual foundation needed to interpret and apply it responsibly. While Course 1 introduces the IFs analytical workflow, Course 2 examines the assumptions, methods, and systems logic behind the model. 

You will begin with the philosophy of forecasting, including the challenge of reasoning about an uncertain future, why models help structure uncertainty rather than eliminate it, and the distinctions among prediction, forecasting, and foresight. You will also examine where IFs fits within the broader landscape of integrated assessment models and scenario frameworks, including the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. 

The core of the course focuses on systems thinking. You will study how stocks and flows, feedback loops, inertia, and cross-system relationships shape change over time. You will examine why interventions can produce delayed, indirect, or unintended effects and how progress in one area may create tradeoffs or pressures elsewhere. You will also learn to trace how changes in one system can affect outcomes across others. 

The course then examines how IFs is structured, initialized, documented, and validated. You will consider where its data comes from, how assumptions shape results, and why some outputs may be more robust than others. You will also learn how to trace results back to the variables, parameters, and relationships that produced them. 

The course concludes by applying these concepts to professional analysis. You will practice asking better strategic questions, combining IFs outputs with other evidence, communicating uncertainty, and explaining the strengths and limitations of model-based analysis to different audiences.

By the end of the course, you will be able to interpret IFs outputs more critically, assess the assumptions behind them, and communicate what the model can and cannot support. 

This course is fully asynchronous and self-paced. Completion of Course 1 is recommended before beginning.

Estimated learning hours: 8-10 hours